The Latest Referrals are Out

The CCAA updated their website around 5:00 this morning. The cut-off date is September 8, 2005. This represents the same number that they referred last time. Here is our updated prediction:






Since our Dossier has not even gone to China yet, I am basing these predictions on a LID between 2.15.2007 and 3.15.2007. My previous predictions were based on a LID between 1.15.2007 and 3.15.2007.

We are currently waiting for our I-171H. Our fingerprints were completed on September 14th, 2006, but our Home Study did not leave for Atlanta until October 2nd, 2006. Atlanta is currently taking 12+ weeks to issue an I-171H. Given the holidays, I am going to lean toward the +++ side of this estimate.

In addition to attempting to predict our referral date, I also enjoy trying to predict the next cut-off dates. I have broken these predictions down two ways; based on the past 5 months and based on the past 1 month. I am using RQ's polls to count how far the LID cut-off date will go. This is way more reliable than the number of days matched and I wish RQ would post a poll that includes all LIDs. The variance would of course increase the further out you go, but I think you could still get a better idea of what's ahead compared to number of days matched. Since the poll stops at the end of October, you can see where I had to stop counting, but the cut-off date should really be beyond October. I just can't tell how far. I have also included the Group numbers of our Agency so that I can see where they fall in my predictions.

A break from Adoption

For those of you who know me, you probably know that I am one of 4 siblings, including my older brother Joe. And for those of you who know Joe, you know why I have to include the following disclaimer.

*THE FOLLOWING SITE AND ITS CONTENT ARE PROVIDED "AS IS." WE MAKE NO REPRESENTATIONS OR ENDORSEMENT ABOUT THE SUITABILITY FOR ANY PURPOSE OF ITS CONTENT. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ENTERTAINMENT VALUE OF THIS SITE. WE DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES AND CONDITIONS, EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF HUMOR, TASTINESS, AND POLITICAL VIEWS.

That being said, here is Joe's most recent hour in the limelight. Please take the time to view the comic strip. Scroll down to Monday, November 13, 2006
(Kimchi #2) The Amateur Kimchi

http://www.zenkimchi.com/

November 2006 Prediction

I added the data from the most recent referrals to my prediction table and this is what it says:

The Varying Wait Over the Past Decade

I found this graph on www.brightoutlooks.com and thought it informative, so I asked for permission to post it on my blog. This is a graph by Ralph Stirling showing the history of wait times from DTC (Dossier to China) to referral from 1996 - 2006.



There is also a list of Historical Milestones that may or may not have affected the wait times.

1990: CCAA became China’s central authority for international adoption (Jun)
1998: Amendments to adoption law were approved (Nov)
2001: Quota system implemented to help regulate the rate of applications (Dec)
2002: Slowdown continues due to growing popularity of China’s program
2003: First case of SARS noted in Toronto (Feb). China introduces six-week suspension of file processing & referrals (May 15 – Jun 24)
2005: Adoptions temporarily halted from Hunan province following baby-trafficking investigations (Nov)


I guess I find this interesting because it shows that the wait has fluctuated pretty consistently over the past 10 years, with the longest waits in 2002 at about 16 Months and the shortest in 2004 at about 5 Months. It seems like the CCAA adjusts their process based on the growing demand of Chinese adoption and we are in an upswing. In a way, I find it comforting to know that the wait has grown to only 16 Months in the past, and hope that this record will not be broken (or if is, not by much).

Note: click here to see the current graph, updated Nov. 2006.

www.brightoutlooks.com

A new batch of referrals was delivered today!

I know it's a little early to be following the referrals so closely, but I can't think of much else. Early this morning the CCAA updated their website announcing that referrals have been matched and sent out for Dossiers that were logged in from August 10th, 2005 to August 25th, 2005!

Just a few more years to go....